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2026 Tax Refund Trends: How the OBBBA is Impacting Your Return

We are a few weeks into the 2026 tax filing season, and the early data from the IRS paints an interesting picture for taxpayers in Chapel Hill and across the country. Preliminary statistics indicate a tangible uptick in the average refund amount. Currently, the average refund sits at $2,476, up from $2,169 at this time in 2025. That represents a 14.2% increase—roughly $300 more in your pocket.

While an increase is welcome news, the numbers are currently falling short of the $1,000 bump that many policymakers and experts forecasted. However, it is early days. As we process more returns at Adkin CPA, these averages are likely to shift. The current upward trend suggests that the new provisions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are beginning to take effect, helping taxpayers realize better outcomes.

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The Key OBBBA Changes Driving Refunds

The OBBBA introduced specific deductions and credits designed to lower taxable income for working families and individuals. Here is a breakdown of the provisions having the most significant impact this season:

  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: This provision targets the "half" of "time-and-a-half" pay mandated by the Fair Labor Standards Act. If you worked significant overtime, you can deduct up to $12,500 (single) or $25,000 (married filing jointly). Be aware that this benefit phases out starting at $150,000 MAGI for singles and $300,000 for couples.

  • Tips Tax Deduction: For those in the service industry working in designated tipped occupations, up to $25,000 of "qualified tips" are now deductible. Married taxpayers must file jointly to claim this. Like the overtime deduction, this benefit follows the same phase-out thresholds ($150k/$300k) and is available whether you itemize or take the standard deduction.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you bought a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, the interest is likely deductible up to $10,000. The loan must be secured by the vehicle and cannot be a personal loan from family. This deduction begins to phase out at $100,000 MAGI ($200,000 for joint filers).

  • Higher Standard Deductions & Senior Bonus: The standard deduction has jumped to $31,500 for married couples and $15,750 for singles. Additionally, there is a new $6,000 "Senior Bonus" for taxpayers aged 65+. This bonus applies whether you itemize or not, though it phases out starting at $75,000 MAGI ($150,000 for couples).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has increased to $2,200 per child. This full credit is available for joint filers earning up to $400,000 ($200,000 for single/head of household).

  • SALT Cap Adjustment: The limit on state and local tax deductions has been raised from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately). For high earners with MAGI over $500,000, this cap begins to phase back down.

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Why Else Are Refunds Higher?

Beyond the legislative changes, a few administrative factors are artificially inflating refunds this year:

  • Withholding Lags: Because many tax cuts were enacted mid-year, IRS withholding tables were not immediately updated. This means many employees had more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary, resulting in larger refunds now.

  • Inflation Adjustments: Significant adjustments to tax brackets have helped mitigate "bracket creep," keeping more income in lower tax tiers despite cost-of-living raises.

  • Refundable Adoption Credit: A portion of the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) is now refundable, meaning you can receive cash back even if your tax liability drops to zero.

Navigating a Challenging Tax Season

While the refunds look promising, the administration of this tax season faces hurdles. The IRS has reported a loss of workforce since January 2025 and is managing a substantial backlog. Consequently, the number of returns processed is down 3.1% compared to this time last year.

If the complexity of the OBBBA or news of IRS delays makes you hesitant to file, remember our Small Business Service Promise: We provide a clear picture of your tax position so there are no surprises. As a "Best of Chapel Hill" winner for 2024 and 2025, Adkin CPA is fully versed in every new deduction and credit available. We are here to ensure you get the best legal tax position possible without the stress of navigating these changes alone.

Do not leave money on the table. Contact us today to ensure your 2025 return captures every benefit you are owed.

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